Winter 2022/23 looks set to maintain the same pattern of recent Winters in Ireland. This has been a mild first half with a slightly cooler second half to the season. This looks like it will happen this year again.
October has certainly been a wet month and these conditions of heavy pulses of rain and sometimes strong winds looks set to continue all the way until November 10th. There could be over 100mm of rain between now and then with parts of the South getting the majority of this rainfall. Cork has already had flooding this Autumn and there could be some more flooding at the start of November as a low pressure system is threatening to bring more heavy rain here.
All the way to November 10th the temperatures are going to be milder than normal in Ireland especially at nighttime. Daytime temperatures will be 14 or 15c and the night will be 8 to 11c so this would mean November would start with overall temperatures of nearly 2c above normal.
After November 10th the weather at last begins to dry out. This will bring slightly cooler weather with highs during the day of 9c to 13c and nighttime temperatures down to 4 or 5c. As the High Pressure incoming in off the Atlantic there will be a lot of cloud around so nights again will not be particularly cold.
This dry weather will probably last until November 20th and then we will see a more West to Southwesterly set up with a battleground between the mobile lows to the West and the High Pressure that will be situated to the Southeast over Europe. Temperatures will again climb to around 10c to 14c and nights not much cooler at about 8 to 11c. This will be because the moist air to the West will mean there is quite a good deal of cloud most of the time.
Towards the end of November a little more in the way of cooler air as nights are now over 14 hours. Temperatures could hover near to 0c on one or two nights towards the end of November.
December will start out cold with some frost before more unsettled conditions move in from the West with strong winds at times. There are some weak signals for some storms around this first week of December. Temperatures to start December will be 6c in Ulster to 10c in Munster.
Storms fading around midmonth as more quiet yet mild weather sets in around the build up to Christmas. There may be a lot of cooler air to our North at this time and over the UK where snow cannot be ruled out. However temperatures of generally 7c to 14c in the period up to Christmas so very little chance of snow in Ireland before Christmas.
Christmas will likely be mild and wet with some wintry showers during brief clearances. During the clearing temperatures of 5 to 8c can be expected otherwise 10 to 13c. Some night frost can be expected too as we move nearer New Year's.
January 2023 looks set to bring Irelands coldest weather of the Winter though yet again there will still be some rain at times. Early January sees cold air over Ireland and wintry showers likely at times with hail and sleet. Some snow is likely on the mountains. After a brief milder spell around the 7th to 10th more cold weather follows and this vould bring some disruption especially to the North and Midlands. Temperatures around this period will be 2c to 4c at best and nights will be sub zero as low as minus 3 or 4. Slightly milder air will move in around mid month to melt the snow areas but as lows dive to the South it will continue to bring cold if not always snowy air to our shores.
Much of January will see temperatures in the low single figures and snowfall is likely at times especially 11th to 14th period and 20th onwards from time to time. There may be also some heavy frost as we head towards February with temperatures as low as minus 7 not out of the question.
So in Summary
November Very Wet then drying out cooler and unsettled end.
December Unsettled and quite stormy at times. Wintry Showers towards the end.
January Coldest month of the Winter. Snowfall likely midmonth and towards the end.
